Gold Hits Record High as U.S.-China Trade War Escalates

Gold prices soared to a new all-time high Thursday as investors reacted to rising tensions in the U.S.-China trade war, a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar, and increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The rush into safe-haven assets sent both bullion and gold-related equities sharply higher.

Gold Surges to Record

Spot gold rose 2.6% to $3,160.82 an ounce by 1:54 p.m. ET, after touching a record high of $3,171.49 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures climbed 3.2% to settle at $3,177.50. According to Dow Jones, gold has now gained 6.9% over the last three trading days, marking its largest three-day rally since March 2020.

Comex gold for April delivery also rose $98.70, or 3.2%, to $3,155.20 — its largest single-day gain since April 9, 2020.

Tariff Hike on China Fuels Uncertainty

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most countries but simultaneously raised duties on Chinese imports from 104% to 125%. 

China had previously retaliated with an 84% tariff on American goods, escalating the trade conflict between the two largest global economies.

“It has been an extraordinary week defined by confusion over Trump’s tariff play,” said Lukman Otunuga, FXTM’s manager of market analysis. He added that the situation “has prompted investors to make a rush to gold.”

Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, said that “uncertainty remains high in markets, stemming from expectations the U.S.-China trade war will worsen and cause pain for both economies.”

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Dollar Declines, Fed Cut Bets Rise

The dollar index fell more than 1% Thursday, making gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Economic data showed U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly declined in March, which markets interpreted as a signal the Federal Reserve may pivot to monetary easing.

Following the CPI release, traders increased bets that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in June and potentially lower rates by a full percentage point by the end of the year.

Alex Ebkarian, Chief Operating Officer at Allegiance Gold, said, “We see central banks buying (gold), so as long as we see inflows into ETFs and more of the monetary policy risks, there's a lot of key drivers that will continue to support gold.”

Gold Mining Stocks Rally

The surge in bullion prices also lifted gold mining stocks, many of which posted multi-year or all-time highs:

• Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) rose over 11% to its highest level in 18 years.
• Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) climbed 6% to an all-time high.
• Gold Fields (GFI) gained more than 9%.
• Alamos Gold (AGI) rose 6% to a record high.
• AngloGold Ashanti (AU) added nearly 8%, reaching a 13-year high.
• Royal Gold (RGLD) advanced 5% to a record high.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the popular gold-tracking ETF, rose more than 2% on Thursday and is up over 4% for the week. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) climbed 14% for the week and reclaimed its 10-week moving average.

Analysts Expect More Upside

Wells Fargo Investment Institute raised its 2025 year-end gold price forecast to a range of $3,000 to $3,200, up from a previous projection of $2,800 to $2,900. In a note published April 4, the firm said central bank demand and a weaker dollar were among the forces driving prices higher than expected.

“Looking ahead, we expect many of the same fundamental drivers that initially sparked the rally in gold to persist in 2025 and drive continued outperformance,” the analysts wrote.

Senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote Bank noted that “a potential replacement of U.S. Treasuries by gold — by China and other central banks — could partly explain gold’s rally past the $3,000 mark. Gold is well bid this morning amid the fire and dust.”

Key Points

• Record Price: Gold hits $3,171.49 per ounce, a new all-time high.
• Trade War Escalates: Trump raises China tariffs to 125% while pausing new tariffs for others.
• Dollar Drops: The U.S. dollar index falls more than 1%, boosting gold’s appeal.
• Fed Pivot Expected: Traders anticipate rate cuts starting in June.
• Mining Stocks Soar: Many gold miners hit multi-year or all-time highs.

As global markets digest rising geopolitical risks and monetary uncertainty, gold is once again proving to be a key hedge — and for now, the momentum appears far from over.